Drivers of Land Use, Land Cover Change, Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Options in Narok North Sub-County, Kenya

Abstract

Narok North Sub-County is experiencing significant changes in land use that are increasing its vulnerability to climate-related hazards, such as floods and droughts. These changes have weakened traditional coping mechanisms, exposing local communities to greater socio-economic and ecological risks. Despite the crucial role of land use in shaping environmental resilience and adaptation, there is limited understanding of its specific impacts on local livelihoods and adaptation options. Specifically, this study sought to: (i) examine current land use practices and identify the key drivers of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in Narok North Sub-County; (ii) analyze LULCC over the past 32 years using Landsat 5, Landsat 7, and Landsat 8/9 imagery and assess its influence on the occurrence of floods and droughts; and (iii) propose evidence-based strategies for enhancing community resilience and climate change adaptation. This study adopted a mixed-methods approach, combining remote sensing analysis of Landsat imagery (1990–2022) with household surveys and key informant interviews. Household surveys and KIIs were used to identify the key drivers of land use and land cover change, while satellite imagery analysis assessed the extent and patterns of these changes. The study also examined the impacts of land use transformations on extreme weather events such as floods and droughts, along with available adaptation options. Landsat 5, Landsat 7, and Landsat 8/9 imagery were utilized to detect and quantify shifts in LULCC, focusing on transitions from forests and grasslands to agricultural and urban land uses. The findings reveal the drivers of land use and land cover change as agricultural expansion, population growth and urbanization. These transformations are leading to a shift from sustainable land management practices to more intensive agricultural activities, resulting in the fragmentation of land, deforestation, and degradation of natural habitats. Such changes are exacerbating the region's vulnerability to climate-related hazards, which are projected to intensify due to climate change. Remote sensing analysis indicated that forest cover loss was most pronounced between 2000 and 2010, with 183.81 ha (7.3%) lost in that decade alone, and continued declining post-2010, resulting in a total loss of 329.46 ha (12.8%) over the 32-year study period, driven by increasing farmland demand and settlement expansion. While cropland showed fluctuations due to evolving land management practices, built-up areas steadily expanded in line with urban growth. The study identifies gaps in land use planning, including the absence of integrated spatial frameworks and weak inter-agency coordination, zoning enforcement, and disaster risk reduction. Plans for community preparedness and multi-hazard assessments are absent from disaster risk reduction initiatives which have contributed to further environmental degradation. The lack of access to real-time climate data and insufficient investment in climate-resilient infrastructure has heightened vulnerability in the region. These findings highlight the need for implementation of stronger governance frameworks and sustainable land management strategies to mitigate climate risks and enhance long-term resilience by both the National and County Government of Narok.